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The next day or two should give us clear clues as
to if the recent pullback is over. All of the major indices are at or right
above or below strong support. A sustained break of this support will suggest
that we clearly have more to the downside, while the markets ability to stay
above recent lows in the coming days will signal that the bottom is
in.
The NASDAQ 100 fell into 2180 support today. This is a critical
level. If the index breaks below this number there is a good chance we will fall
to 2125. If the NASDAQ 100 is able to hold the 2180 support, we are headed to
recent 2007 highs, before a continued push higher. It isn't extremely surprising
that the index has fallen back to its breakout point from the rectangle
formation that was carved out in October. You could make ! the argument that
2200 was the breakout area, but falling back an additional percent is not a
problem. Now that support has been hit, it is likely the index is going to
continue its longer-term uptrend.
Two weeks ago SMH fell into strong
support on very high volume. Notice the three high volume bars starting on the
23rd of October. This is often a sign of a key reversal. Indices and often
stocks reverse after a high volume move below recent lows or above recent highs.
SMH could test the 33.40 support again, but if the ETF does we believe that it
will bounce higher.
IWM is possible forming a double bottom formation
with today's low being the second bottom. A break of 78 could suggest a further
move to the 74 or 75 area. If the 78 level is held, the ETF has already found
the bottom of the recent pullback.
The next couple of days will likely
tell us if the recent pullback is over.
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