Long-Term System

Mid-Term System

Today is Monday, July 3, 2006
By now it is nearly a certainty that the market put in its low on June 12th. The rally off the bottom has started and we are expecting large moves higher in the days ahead. Tonight we are going to be looking at QQQQ, SMH, and the Russell 2000.

 The first chart is of QQQQ. You can first notice the downtrend line that the ETF broke just a few days ago. There is also a double bottom formation in QQQQ with June 12th and June 27th being the bottoms. We have used Fibonacci retracement lines to predict the outcome of a break higher from this formation (purple lines). The basic measure rule would predict that QQQQ could push to 40.87 with an upward breakout from the formation. We have also noted resistance areas on 40.50 and 41. The yellow highlighted area suggests the possible mid-term conclusion to this upmove. The resistance line on the 39 area shows the top of the double bottom formation and important horizontal resistance, and the resistance line in the 40 area shows shorter-term resistance.

The next chart is of SMH. The Semiconductor ETF is also in a double bottom formation. Resistance for this formation is in the 33.50 area and the measure rule suggests a possible move to 35.56. Horizontal resistance is in the 35.00 and 35.50 area and the yellow highlighted area suggests a possible conclusion to this mid-term move. 34.50 is a shorter-term resistance area.

The final chart is of the Russell 2000. Not surprisingly, this index has made the most headway. It is also in a double bottom formation with the 702 area being the top of the formation. The measure rule suggests a possible conclusion at 736 and there is also horizontal resistance in this area, as can be seen on the chart. Later resistance is in the 770 and 780 area.

We have had to wait a while for this rally, but last Thursday's powerful up day is certainly not the end of this move.




Take Care,

Stephen Brown
Founder of Nasdaq Wizard, LLC


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